Prediction Markets
Trade prediction markets on Liquid. Buy Yes or No contracts on politics, sports, finance, and world events, priced from $0 to $1 and paying $1 when you are right.
A prediction market lets you trade contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Each contract pays out based on what actually happens, so its price behaves like a live probability. On Liquid you can trade prediction markets on politics, sports, finance, technology, and world events from the same account you use for crypto, stocks, and FX.
How Prediction Market Prices Work
Every contract represents a specific outcome, such as "this candidate wins" or "this team advances." Each outcome is priced between $0 and $1.
A contract trading at $0.65 means the market sees roughly a 65% chance the outcome happens.
If the outcome happens, each contract you hold pays out $1.
If it does not, the contract settles at $0.
Prices move with supply and demand. When more traders buy Yes, the price rises. When more sell, it falls. The price is a running vote, weighted by conviction and capital, on how likely the outcome is. A prediction market price is an estimate, not a guarantee: a $0.80 contract still loses one time in five on average.
How to Trade a Prediction Market on Liquid
Open the Predict tab in the app or go to app.liquid.trade/predict.
Browse by category or search for an event.
Read the price to see the implied probability of each outcome.
Buy the Yes or No contract that matches your view.
Hold to settlement, or sell before the event resolves to lock in a gain or cut a loss.
Prediction markets use a separate prediction balance. Move funds between your trading balance and your prediction balance in a few taps from the Portfolio screen.
Fees
Opening a prediction market position is free. Liquid charges a 0.9% fee when you sell a contract or a position is closed. See Fees.
Trading Prediction Markets with Co-Invest
Co-Invest can search event contracts, report live probabilities, and take a Yes or No position for you after you confirm. Try "search prediction markets about the Fed" or "buy $50 of Yes on this market" in Claude, ChatGPT, or iMessage.
Common Mistakes
Treating a price as a certainty. A $0.75 contract loses a quarter of the time. Size positions for that risk.
Ignoring liquidity. Thin markets move sharply on a single trade. Check volume before committing size.
Chasing news. The market has usually repriced within seconds of a headline. Wait for the spread to settle before entering.